Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
A baseball batter cannot hit a home run every at-bat. You might make a lot of money once with luck, but that’s a fleeting way to earn. If you generate a lot of money without even preparing a bowl, you might end up unhappy. The reason for emphasizing the ‘compound effect’ in investing is because it’s one of the few sustainable methods mankind has experienced. However, compared to our greed, ‘compound interest’ seems like a small rate of return right now, so many people break the rules they need to follow and take risky investments, putting themselves in danger. We can’t hit a home run every day. Valuing small profits and working to protect them will bring us good fortune. Greed leads to destruction. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”