Joseph's "Just My Thoughts"

The social scientist’s method of confirming the facts is first to verify the beta error (Type II error) and then the alpha error (Type I error) before accepting the hypothesis as true. In other words, if the probability is less than 5% after focusing on the likelihood of accepting a false hypothesis as true (Type II error), then we risk rejecting a true hypothesis (Type I error) as false. It’s a conservative position that new information will be accepted only when the probability of being wrong is very small. This verification method is helpful if you don’t want to be swayed by conspiracy theories. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

On the highway, I saw a warning saying “Half of the death accidents were not wearing seat belts”. This means, “Even if you wear a seat belt, half die.” “Safety” is emphasized by saying “50% reduction in mortality when wearing seat belts”. In the former, 'probability' was noted, and in the latter, the effect of 'reduction' was emphasized. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Japanese actor and filmmaker Takeshi Kitano said this about Effort. "Effort is like a lottery ticket. If you buy it, you might win, but if you don't buy it, you'll never win." Effort is not about maximizing your probability of success; it's a behavior that ensures a minimum probability of success. There's certainly no guarantee that you'll succeed, but if you don't put in the effort, you'll miss out on the opportunities that come with that minimum probability. Probability always brings doubt about the outcome of our efforts and creates conflict in continuing our challenges and actions. However, the world of probability is the realm of God, where human effort cannot intervene, so we should not attach value to the outcome of our efforts, even if the outcome is success or failure. Therefore, nothing is meaningful disappointment or attachment for us, and we can only be slightly happy if our attitude toward the outcome is value-neutral. Even in the worl...