It also means that if I have been fortunate in the way I have lived up to now, misfortune may come one day. Management involves looking at both sides of this coin. When business conditions are good, we need to prepare for tough times, and when business conditions are bad, we need to prepare for better times. If you have experienced misfortunes so far, you should hope that the opposite can also occur. Nothing lasts forever. The universe also changes from time to time, and we must abandon the notion that the society we live in will remain the same. Management is the act of converting uncertainty into certainty. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
The social scientist’s method of confirming the facts is first to verify the beta error (Type II error) and then the alpha error (Type I error) before accepting the hypothesis as true. In other words, if the probability is less than 5% after focusing on the likelihood of accepting a false hypothesis as true (Type II error), then we risk rejecting a true hypothesis (Type I error) as false. It’s a conservative position that new information will be accepted only when the probability of being wrong is very small. This verification method is helpful if you don’t want to be swayed by conspiracy theories. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”