Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Questions. Who is the biggest threat to GM? 1. Hyundai Motor 2. Tesla 3. Google 4. Consumer Well, how about this? 1. Which gasoline car should I buy? (Competitor: Hyundai Motor) 2. Should I buy an electric car or a gasoline car? (Competitor: Tesla) 3. Should I buy an autonomous car? (Competitor: Google Waymo) 4. Should I buy a car? (Destroyer: Consumer) In this context, the biggest threat to GM is a shared car service company like Uber. Innovative technologies trigger market change, but business models are ultimately the most creative and disruptive. Innovative technology comes next. The biggest causes of business problems are business models first, and the second is business models too. In other words, the key to success is the same. The original business model has to change and evolve. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"