Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts with the label fallible

Just my thoughts #0764

Tendency: The force that maintains a phenomenon’s movement in a consistent direction. Therefore, as long as this tendency persists, the future can be predicted within certain limits. When tendencies change, so does the future. The surest way to get wealthy is to know the future first. Of course, just knowing the future isn’t enough. Still, it’s clear that those who see the future faster and have a wealth of knowledge will have an advantage in competition. In society, people operate under a common direction that its members agree upon and believe in, and they have the power to maintain that direction. For example, a brief fashion trend, the ongoing rain during the rainy season, or the inertia in physics that keeps an object moving at the same velocity unless acted upon by an external force. Once a force moves in a specific direction, it tends to continue in that direction. By carefully reading trends, you are more likely to build wealth or achieve social success. - Joseph’s “just my tho...

Just my thoughts #0039

The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"