Joseph's "Just My Thoughts"

The world of investing is full of uncertainty . Even if we understand the past, we cannot predict the future , and past patterns are not always reliable. To maintain stability and protect my interests in an uncertain world, I need to know my own limits for change. Based on these limits, I should develop small, regular response patterns. In other words, the key to overcoming uncertainty is my own consistency, guided by the thresholds I observe in the world around me. Small, steady behaviors and habits can help manage or minimize the impact of uncertainty. No one invests without expecting the asset’s value to increase over time . The issue is that no one can truly predict the future, and even correct predictions are mostly based on probability and luck . However, from a broader perspective, microscopic risks can be managed. For example, the macro principle “Every human dies” must be 100% true, even if individual behaviors are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

No matter how long you know someone, you can’t truly understand the mind of that person. A person’s values become evident when they face a dilemma —the dilemma of being unable to choose one option over another. Dilemmas arise amid contradictions where logic clashes, and in response to concerns and fears stemming from uncertainty . The conflict of logic and fear reveals the true nature of humanity. The decisions a person makes while overcoming a dilemma ultimately shape who they are. People often say that the totality of our choices defines our lives, and accepting the consequences, whether good or bad, is a reflection of our character. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

It also means that if I have been fortunate in the way I have lived up to now, misfortune may come one day. Management involves looking at both sides of this coin. When business conditions are good, we need to prepare for tough times , and when business conditions are bad, we need to prepare for better times. If you have experienced misfortunes so far, you should hope that the opposite can also occur. Nothing lasts forever. The universe also changes from time to time, and we must abandon the notion that the society we live in will remain the same. Management is the act of converting uncertainty into certainty. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Management is the activity of transforming uncertainty into certainty to create predictability . For example, investing in stocks when you don’t know when or how much you’ll make is a gamble , but finding a way to achieve an average return of 15% per month is management. Bank loans have a fixed schedule for when and how much principal and interest must be repaid. It is not the banking business where you can repay or request repayment at any time when you have funds. Nevertheless, we gamble or engage in a ritual for rain , mistakenly believing that it is management. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Japanese actor and filmmaker Takeshi Kitano said this about Effort. "Effort is like a lottery ticket. If you buy it, you might win, but if you don't buy it, you'll never win." Effort is not about maximizing your probability of success; it's a behavior that ensures a minimum probability of success. There's certainly no guarantee that you'll succeed, but if you don't put in the effort, you'll miss out on the opportunities that come with that minimum probability. Probability always brings doubt about the outcome of our efforts and creates conflict in continuing our challenges and actions. However, the world of probability is the realm of God, where human effort cannot intervene, so we should not attach value to the outcome of our efforts, even if the outcome is success or failure. Therefore, nothing is meaningful disappointment or attachment for us, and we can only be slightly happy if our attitude toward the outcome is value-neutral. Even in the worl...