Joseph's "Just My Thoughts"

Let’s say you have two options. If you press the blue button , you will receive 1 million USD, and if you press the red button , you will receive 10 million USD, but the probability of winning is 50%. Which button would you press? If pressing the blue button is business, pressing the red button is gambling. In other words, depending on your attitude toward the relationship between risk and reward , we can determine whether we are suitable as managers. But if you press the red button with a 50% chance of winning and you don’t win, and you have to pay a fine of 1 million USD, would you still press the red button? The relationship between risk and reward influences people’s behavior. Business is about creating a structure that is advantageous to me, and building a system in which the structure continues to benefit me is called management. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

The most important aspect of investing is managing risk. However, in most cases, risk management is interpreted and assessed in relation to past patterns. When asset prices fall, the perceived risk appears significant. That doesn’t imply there weren’t risks; investors simply didn’t recognize the risks that originally existed. The level of risk is almost identical whether the price of an asset goes up or down, but when prices decline, they tend to drop further because fear prevents us from purchasing more assets, leading us to retreat. It’s not that the risk has escalated. It is unwise to link risk with past patterns. There have been numerous exceptions in the world, and many beings on this planet have disappeared because they could not adapt. Did dinosaurs not become extinct on Earth ? Exceptions are exceptions because they are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Talented individuals are more likely to earn significant money in a short period than to generate regular, routine income. However, if they can’t establish a steady income from the substantial earnings they’ve made at once, they risk facing financial difficulties. This is why individuals who earn a large sum quickly need investment knowledge and experience . Understanding how to manage risks rather than just focusing on profit is the most crucial aspect of investing. The best way to mitigate or control risk is to anticipate the future; a steady income facilitates predictions, making risk management easier than in other scenarios. Therefore, a business should prioritize generating a stable income. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

When leaders are busy, organizations are at risk. Leaders who don’t acknowledge reality, who can’t make decisions and let time pass during conflicts, who can’t trust others, and who intervene in even minor matters exemplify incomparably incompetent leaders who disguise themselves with their own integrity to avoid failure. Leaders who fail to recognize their limitations and cannot delegate their responsibilities to others will harm both themselves and the organization while they keep their positions. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Paradoxically, one of the reasons for Rome’s demise was that it kept winning wars. Victories expanded the empire’s territory, and the risks increased proportionally. Men, primarily middle-class men, volunteered as soldiers; the larger the territory, the longer the wars lasted, and the longer it took for them to return home. The women who remained at home were forced to borrow labor and became indebted to the nobility. Eventually, the women were sold into slavery, and by the time the men returned, their families had disintegrated. People don’t betray because they’re evil, but because it increases their risk. If the territory you’re in grows, you might reconsider your loyalties to the organization. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Expansion inherently carries risks. As a country or business grows, the number of elements needing protection rises significantly, heightening the likelihood of failure. Many say, “Achieving success is challenging, but sustaining it is even more difficult.” Balancing capacity and expansion is often complex; yet, it is crucial to achieve this equilibrium to prevent success from becoming a curse. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”