Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In his book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” the Nobel Prize winner in economics, Daniel Kahneman, said that humans have two systems of thinking. These two thinking systems were called “system 1” and “system 2”. “System 1” is an intuitive and emotional thinking system that operates unconsciously and immediately. “System 2” is rational and is determined by careful consideration. “System 1” is advantageous for survival in a crisis and works immediately, so operating costs are less than “System 2”. When humans make decisions, they decide 95% with “System 1” and 5% with “System 2”. Humans decide by emotion, but by reason, they must revenge those foolish emotions. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”