Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In 2002, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman conducted an experiment called the “Dictator Game”. It was 1986. One of the two subjects was given $20 to share with the other. The first condition was that the recipient could exercise his veto power if he did not like the distribution ratio, and then, the ruler ensured that the giver did not have the money. The second condition eliminated the veto. In the first condition, most people who gave money were divided in half. In the second condition, however, the giver had about 70% and shared only 30%. Most people think of fairness to vested interests between 50% and 70%. But, in some cases, even though the recipient had a veto, the giver had 90% and wanted to share only 10%. At that time, it was beneficial for the recipient to receive at least 10%, but by exercising the veto power, the giver did not have the money either. This is the moment of conflict between justice and rationality. People do not make decisions based on reason alon...