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Showing posts with the label Kahneman

Just my thoughts #0828

Connection Trap: Derivation differs from the original. Let’s say you’ve uncovered the secrets to investing in stocks and made a fortune. The secret you hold is valuable, but if you publish a book about those secrets and spend time giving lectures and counseling to teach others, it becomes difficult to concentrate on your main job—investing in stocks. Investments, publications, lectures, and consultations all revolve around the theme of “stocks” and are linked by a single story; however, each has its own distinct features. Expanding your work isn’t easy. Adding another item to a restaurant menu creates additional problems. We think that time is limited, but often we fail to use it wisely. It’s a miracle we don’t fail while spending time as if consuming water. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0039

The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"