Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Only a few founders genuinely grasp the essence of their businesses from the start. After launching, they often start to grasp the core of their ventures as their customer bases expand. If startups had a clearer insight into their businesses from the outset, they could significantly lower their chances of failure. The sooner you identify your business’s essence, the greater your chances for success will be. Furthermore, if you can quickly pivot your business direction—even if you realize it later—the likelihood of failure diminishes. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”