Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In markets that trade natural products, such as agricultural, fishery, energy, and commodities markets , oversupply or at least excess supply causes problems. When supply is high, prices plummet, causing significant damage to producers; conversely, when supply is low, prices rise, and consumer sentiment diminishes. As a result, both suppliers and consumers suffer. The challenge is that it is difficult to intentionally set the level of production. Because of this, a futures market develops in situations where we have to accept what nature provides. Futures trading is a method in which a producer and a distributor agree in advance to trade the price of an item to be produced in the future, without knowing the exact quantity yet. In other words, in futures trading, the focus is on price rather than quantity. Since it is challenging to stock items that require freshness, futures trading offers advantages by allowing transactions to be made in advance. However, if supply fluctuates too m...