Joseph's "Just My Thoughts"

Austrian psychiatrist Julius Wagner-Jauregg had a remarkable talent for recognizing patterns. When a common tendency appears, it’s called a pattern. Finding common ground also involves identifying problems or finding solutions. Before the discovery of penicillin, Julius was searching for a way to treat neurosyphilis but accidentally discovered that the condition was cured when the patient developed a severe fever from another disease. Julius intentionally infected a patient with malaria to induce a fever, and when the fever rose, he used quinine to treat malaria and saved the syphilis patient. Without treatment, syphilis had a 30% survival rate, but with malaria-induced fever, the survival rate increased to 60%. The survival rate was doubled. For this work, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1927. Although high fever causes pain in humans, it also signals that the immune system is active. Recognize patterns to solve problems. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Investing means investing time, not people or assets. The object you invest in doesn’t generate money; time does. Failing to understand the role and principles of time in business and investment is a waste of energy. Because time is invisible, we often overlook it or fail to recognize its impact and role. This world is driven by probability. When dealing with probability, the first thing to consider is the invisible nature of time. Ignoring this fact leads to waste and inefficiency without us even realizing the damage. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 shareholders’ meeting, Warren Buffett said, “I’ve owned 400 to 500 companies’ stocks in my lifetime, but only about 10 of them made the most money.” His lifelong friend and investment partner, Charlie Munger, added, “With the exception of some of Berkshire Hathaway’s best investment practices, long-term performance is near-average.” Many people know Warren Buffett’s return on investment better than his mistakes or failures. It’s because of those 10 companies that he succeeded in investing. If there is a positive, there must be a negative. It’s better to prepare a realistic alternative in case you fail than to try to avoid failing. Humans are probabilistic beings. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Maintaining even a small annual profit is advantageous in investing. Survival remains the most critical factor in business. People have sought the secret to Warren Buffett’s success, which is the power of compounding, but they overlook the real key: he has invested consistently for 75 years without pause. You can indeed succeed in your business endeavors through sheer survival; conversely, you cannot survive solely because of your success. Survival is only achievable if you have the strength to keep going, even with minimal returns. To do this, you must do what you love. Invest in stocks you like, and continue investing even if it is volatile. Next, you need to secure a “margin of safety.” Even a small margin ratio is crucial because a business can’t survive without margins. Frugal spending, flexible thinking, loose schedules—anything that helps during tough times—can all contribute to building a margin of safety. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

According to Morgan Housel, a financial author, whether an investor is safety-oriented or risk-oriented is mainly shaped by early adult experiences, not by intelligence or education. It depends on where and when a person is born. The region I live in, including my country and the era, greatly influences a person’s economic outlook and ability. If you feel ‘no way,’ you might need to change your location. Even when evaluating others, if you estimate ‘no way,’ you should consider having them leave the place. In the Bible, when someone changes their life, the first thing God does is move them from one place to another. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

The world of investing is full of uncertainty. Even if we understand the past, we cannot predict the future, and past patterns are not always reliable. To maintain stability and protect my interests in an uncertain world, I need to know my own limits for change. Based on these limits, I should develop small, regular response patterns. In other words, the key to overcoming uncertainty is my own consistency, guided by the thresholds I observe in the world around me. Small, steady behaviors and habits can help manage or minimize the impact of uncertainty. No one invests without expecting the asset’s value to increase over time. The issue is that no one can truly predict the future, and even correct predictions are mostly based on probability and luck. However, from a broader perspective, microscopic risks can be managed. For example, the macro principle “Every human dies” must be 100% true, even if individual behaviors are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”