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Showing posts with the label weather forecaster

Just my thoughts #0834

There are two primary approaches to creating something: bottom-up design and top-down design . Top-down design is often seen in architecture. People do not build bricks randomly; instead, they follow the design drawings created by the architect. This method executes a plan that has already been established. When asked why something is built in a certain way, the answer is usually that the blueprint dictates its design. Conversely, bottom-up design does not start with a fixed goal, but rather involves setting and implementing small, actionable rules. For example, termite nests follow this approach. Small termites have a simple rule: to pile up soil. They do this without knowing the reason, but over time, the finished structure is remarkable and sophisticated. The appearance of the Sagrada Familia church , designed by Antoni Gaudí and still under construction, closely resembles a termite nest, differing only in size. Setting goals and planning is one way to create, but actual achievem...

Just my thoughts #0820

Fact Check: Humans cannot honestly know the future. It only partially predicts the future within limited scenarios and conditions. The weather forecast is an example. When you look back at the past from the present, you can understand the situation relatively accurately, but you did not fully grasp what the event was like at that time. Later, we only justify the past. One instance of preparing for a probabilistically unstable future is to consider the statistic that lowering the speed limit on highways can reduce the accident rate. However, the most reliable prediction method is to assume the future is unknown and to act only after confirming the current situation. Fact-checking is crucial in business management and investing. Avoid hasty forecasts ; instead, wait until you have verified the information before acting. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0762

Weather forecasters on the news often feature well-dressed meteorologists who diligently explain the weather using various meteorological terms. But if the forecasts were always accurate , there would be no need for such lengthy explanations. People wouldn’t complain if it were simply raining or not, if the temperature was a few degrees, and if the humidity was comfortable or uncomfortable. However, since there’s a chance the forecast could be wrong , they try to explain it thoroughly to ask for people’s understanding. Do you see why simplicity is great? Simplicity is great because no one can simplify it haphazardly. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”