Joseph's "Just My Thoughts"

The Paradox of Development. In 2008, Google created a system to predict flu outbreaks in advance. Initially, the tool accurately forecasted when and where the flu might occur. However, in 2013, a new feature was added that suggested related search terms. As a result, searchers began inputting their queries less carefully, which led to a decline in the system’s predictive performance. Although improvements have been made since then, this example illustrates how enhancements in one area can cause failures in another. Therefore, it seems like we gain by losing, and often lose by gaining. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Garbage: Nothing starts as garbage; it becomes so when materials used to protect valuables, like packaging, are no longer needed, or when objects become obsolete or worn out after their expiration date, such as second-hand goods. In essence, garbage results from the end of roles or functions, as well as the passing of values over time. Similarly, the mind follows this process. The defense mechanisms of the mind, which I once valued for self-protection, may also become garbage. When they are no longer valid or worth protecting, we may cling to them, though they are mere illusions. Just as with physical waste, mental garbage should be discarded rather than kept. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Storytelling: When the future is uncertain and making decisions becomes difficult, we should calmly gather our thoughts and craft our own story. Stories hold power—the power to neatly organize complex situations. We accept and understand even absurd stories with interest if they fit the art of storytelling. Storytelling reconstructs the situation and finds and fills in the missing meaning between events based on facts. As a result, we complete and accept a coherent narrative. We experience cognitive dissonance when a narrative isn’t interpreted due to an incomprehensible situation, meaning the gap between events isn’t understood. This cognitive dissonance causes instability, which further complicates the situation. Addressing twists, turns, and future uncertainties requires a focus on storytelling. In this process, I need to identify the parts I missed and complete the meaning. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Expectations and disappointments stem from the same root. External factors do not separate expectations from disappointments; rather, internal factors do. We can’t easily stop losing if we lose a little because expectations remain. Moreover, we’re not satisfied with small profits; we want more. In other words, greed is the root of both expectations and disappointments. It’s wrong to say that you’re disappointed because you expect it. Since they share the same root, expectations and disappointments only intersect depending on the situation. With a big loss, you lose patience, and with a big profit, you feel happy only then. Large gains or losses are hard to sustain, but small, everyday victories are easier to maintain because our brains are wired that way. Big negative events often result from a series of small bad outcomes, while big happiness comes from accumulating small joys. Our life is about continuously pushing forward with small but steady steps. Repeating small decisions can le...

Space and Gravity: We understand intangible values like price or worth using spatial and physical metaphors: high or low, rising or falling. Although intangible value has no physical properties, we mentally map it onto ideas of space and gravity. For instance, we imagine a lowest point for value, equating a price drop with a sharp fall and a rise with a slow climb, as if gravity is at work. This illustrates that our thinking applies the rules of space and gravity to even the most abstract concepts. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Stock prices fluctuate constantly. There are several reliable ways to mitigate stock price volatility: trading short-term gap price differences, buying and selling with momentum, or holding high-quality stocks for the long term until volatility averages out. When stock price movement is mathematically differentiated by time, the instantaneous price emerges—but humans cannot act in microseconds. In contrast, computers, with enhanced performance, can now trade at these speeds. Furthermore, by using artificial intelligence to analyze stock data, computers can reduce mistakes and trade algorithmically, unaffected by emotion. Still, even computers are limited if humans incorrectly input trading rules. Humans are not suboptimal investors due to a shortage of information or knowledge, but because they often fail to follow the necessary rules in each situation. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Liquidation Value: All valuations consider present and future values. Value is generated over time. It begins in the present and extends into the future. This ongoing value is referred to as continuing value. Countries, corporations, households, and individuals set current values based on the belief that the present state will persist. What happens if it does not continue? It loses its future value. This state is known as the liquidation value. For example, this occurs if you quit your business. Almost all investments involve buying and selling assets based on their future worth. If you buy at a price lower than the liquidation value, you make a significant profit. If you buy at the liquidation value, you pay a fair price. If you pay more, you risk overpaying or buying a bubble. Value depends on time. Continuing a process is key to valuation. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”