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Just my thoughts #0820

Fact Check: Humans cannot honestly know the future. It only partially predicts the future within limited scenarios and conditions. The weather forecast is an example. When you look back at the past from the present, you can understand the situation relatively accurately, but you did not fully grasp what the event was like at that time. Later, we only justify the past. One instance of preparing for a probabilistically unstable future is to consider the statistic that lowering the speed limit on highways can reduce the accident rate. However, the most reliable prediction method is to assume the future is unknown and to act only after confirming the current situation. Fact-checking is crucial in business management and investing. Avoid hasty forecasts; instead, wait until you have verified the information before acting. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
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Just my thoughts #0447

Since 2008, the US CDC has published annual flu reports aimed at preventing the spread of influenza nationwide. Researchers took two weeks to compile data on each flu outbreak by calculating the number of cases and generating a report. Meanwhile, the flu had already spread across the country. Google addressed this issue by analyzing search query statistics. However, an error emerged in 2013 when the flu vaccine became scarce, prompting the media to publish numerous flu-related articles that further distorted the situation by conflating the search terms for flu patients. In other words, accurate data analysis depends on the ability to interpret quality, untainted data and its context.


- Joseph’s “just my thoughts”




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